Welcome to the world of the NFL. You're getting into a highly competitive and most interesting endeavor. When you participate in fantasy football, you will find the people you're competing against will take each week as his or her own Super Bowl.
You'll have fun, you'll have a great deal of conversation, and aim for big-time bragging rights each week. But the ultimate goal is to be the one with bragging rights for the entire offseason.
Fantasy football is something everyone has a chance to be successful in (male, female, young, old). All you need is a little luck -- like those who picked Jeff Garcia or Ahman Green in 2000, David Boston or Anthony Thomas in 2001, and Clinton Portis or Priest Holmes in 2002.
Skill is also important, but being a frequent visitor to NFL.com and CBS SportsLine.com can help you compete with anyone in this area. Furthermore, having NFL Fantasy Extra on your side is like having your own GM to help attain success. And when you access any of the above, you will note many times there will be varied opinions from the experts, including myself, who contribute this information. No one wins without proper preparation, so make sure you know what you're doing come your draft day.
Some things to remember
It's not enough to rank players for your fantasy draft based on statistics from 2002. You can factor in key rookies (like Detroit's Charles Rogers and Houston's Andre Johnson) and potential lineup changes (Laveranues Coles going to Washington, for one -- in the past Spurrier has had wideouts who end up with big numbers), but that's not the complete answer either.
Coaching point on rookies: Few wide receivers have good rookie years. Conversely, running backs seem to do well in their rookie campaigns.
Let me give you some examples: In 2001, five first-round wide receivers combined for 123 receptions for six touchdowns. In 2002, three first-round receivers combined for 100 receptions and 11 touchdowns. Undrafted running back Dominic Rhodes gained 1,104 yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns for the Colts in '01. Portis, the 51st player selected in 2002, rushed for 1,509 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns!
I've looked at the tapes and graded players from 2002 based on their ability. My grading system is one in which I place players in a "plateau." For instance, it doesn't take a genius to rank Rich Gannon, Michael Vick and Peyton Manning as the three most valuable quarterbacks for 2003 (Kurt Warner would be included if we knew for sure about his health). But if you're in a 12-team league, then you've got only a 25 percent chance of landing one of those players.
So now you have to look at the second plateau of quarterbacks. Just for argument's sake, let's say the choices are Drew Brees, Kerry Collins, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Tommy Maddox, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Chad Pennington. You want to consider every possible factor that will help you separate the players within a plateau.
These factors include:
Players changing teams -- Jake Plummer in Denver means he has a new system and new players around him
Weather -- Drew Bledsoe plays five of his last six games in cold weather
Player age -- History tells us when QBs reach 33 they start to throw more interceptions, though that had no efffect on Gannon in '02
Teammates -- The Bills' Josh Reed, who should be more productive with Peerless Price leaving Buffalo after catching 94 passes and scoring nine TDs in 2002, could keep Bledsoe's production steady. Meanwhile, Vick's may rise with Price joining his team.
Strength of schedule -- It's a factor, but not nearly as strong as before 2002
Additional tips
In the next few weeks, we'll put together a detailed ranking of players to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. In the meantime, here are some examples of the factors we're talking about.
The kicking game: Many fantasy owners take the kicking game for granted. Kickers might not produce as many fantasy points as the skill-position players, but they're still valuable. Last year, David Akers and Jay Feely scored 133 and 138 points, respectively.
And there are so many factors that go into finding the right player. Of course, indoors vs. outdoors and turf vs. grass are the obvious issues. For example, if you feel Akers and Feely are equal or nearly equal, you may select Feely because he has at least nine indoor games a year, while Akers has at least 10 games outdoors every season.
In addition, there are two other key factors few fantasy owners consider -- the snapper and the holder. Just ask the New York Giants how important a good long snapper is. Just goes to show you how important being "unimportant" really is.
The wall: This is not a hard and fast rule, but I firmly believe there is a specific age when certain players "hit the wall." This age differs for the three skill positions, but it's the point when you will see performance begin to drop precipitously. Two running backs I would keep an eye on here are Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis, who turned 31 in February, and San Francisco's Garrison Hearst, who turned 32 in January.
Here are the ages I consider to be "the wall" for their positions.
Quarterback -- 33
Running back -- 31
Wide receiver -- 34
I repeat: This is not a foolproof system. Raiders receiver Jerry Rice turned 40 last October and was still a great player in 2002 -- 92 catches, 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns.
Ascending players: Not much of a formula here as these are essentially projections. As we get into the position rankings, you'll see who I think will have a breakout year. Last year, I thought Bengals receiver Chad Johnson and Saints RB Deuce McAllister would fall into this category. Based on their statistics, I'd like to think I was correct.
One RB who was once an ascending player was Priest Holmes, who quietly joined the Chiefs in 2001. Since then, he's been a fantasy gift for whoever drafts him, and he knows it! He actually acknowledged the fantasy community recently when he told reporters that they should tell all the fantasy players they'll be sorry if they don't take him No. 1. Holmes is coming off of a hip injury, but his confidence along with his potential could be too much for fantasy players to pass up come draft time.
We hope the advice given here will help you earn those weekly bragging rights you crave! Good luck, and don't forget to check out NFL Fantasy Extra to give you a decided edge over your opponents every week.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/6508807
You'll have fun, you'll have a great deal of conversation, and aim for big-time bragging rights each week. But the ultimate goal is to be the one with bragging rights for the entire offseason.
Fantasy football is something everyone has a chance to be successful in (male, female, young, old). All you need is a little luck -- like those who picked Jeff Garcia or Ahman Green in 2000, David Boston or Anthony Thomas in 2001, and Clinton Portis or Priest Holmes in 2002.
Skill is also important, but being a frequent visitor to NFL.com and CBS SportsLine.com can help you compete with anyone in this area. Furthermore, having NFL Fantasy Extra on your side is like having your own GM to help attain success. And when you access any of the above, you will note many times there will be varied opinions from the experts, including myself, who contribute this information. No one wins without proper preparation, so make sure you know what you're doing come your draft day.
Some things to remember
It's not enough to rank players for your fantasy draft based on statistics from 2002. You can factor in key rookies (like Detroit's Charles Rogers and Houston's Andre Johnson) and potential lineup changes (Laveranues Coles going to Washington, for one -- in the past Spurrier has had wideouts who end up with big numbers), but that's not the complete answer either.
Coaching point on rookies: Few wide receivers have good rookie years. Conversely, running backs seem to do well in their rookie campaigns.
Let me give you some examples: In 2001, five first-round wide receivers combined for 123 receptions for six touchdowns. In 2002, three first-round receivers combined for 100 receptions and 11 touchdowns. Undrafted running back Dominic Rhodes gained 1,104 yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns for the Colts in '01. Portis, the 51st player selected in 2002, rushed for 1,509 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns!
I've looked at the tapes and graded players from 2002 based on their ability. My grading system is one in which I place players in a "plateau." For instance, it doesn't take a genius to rank Rich Gannon, Michael Vick and Peyton Manning as the three most valuable quarterbacks for 2003 (Kurt Warner would be included if we knew for sure about his health). But if you're in a 12-team league, then you've got only a 25 percent chance of landing one of those players.
So now you have to look at the second plateau of quarterbacks. Just for argument's sake, let's say the choices are Drew Brees, Kerry Collins, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Tommy Maddox, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Chad Pennington. You want to consider every possible factor that will help you separate the players within a plateau.
These factors include:
Players changing teams -- Jake Plummer in Denver means he has a new system and new players around him
Weather -- Drew Bledsoe plays five of his last six games in cold weather
Player age -- History tells us when QBs reach 33 they start to throw more interceptions, though that had no efffect on Gannon in '02
Teammates -- The Bills' Josh Reed, who should be more productive with Peerless Price leaving Buffalo after catching 94 passes and scoring nine TDs in 2002, could keep Bledsoe's production steady. Meanwhile, Vick's may rise with Price joining his team.
Strength of schedule -- It's a factor, but not nearly as strong as before 2002
Additional tips
In the next few weeks, we'll put together a detailed ranking of players to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. In the meantime, here are some examples of the factors we're talking about.
The kicking game: Many fantasy owners take the kicking game for granted. Kickers might not produce as many fantasy points as the skill-position players, but they're still valuable. Last year, David Akers and Jay Feely scored 133 and 138 points, respectively.
And there are so many factors that go into finding the right player. Of course, indoors vs. outdoors and turf vs. grass are the obvious issues. For example, if you feel Akers and Feely are equal or nearly equal, you may select Feely because he has at least nine indoor games a year, while Akers has at least 10 games outdoors every season.
In addition, there are two other key factors few fantasy owners consider -- the snapper and the holder. Just ask the New York Giants how important a good long snapper is. Just goes to show you how important being "unimportant" really is.
The wall: This is not a hard and fast rule, but I firmly believe there is a specific age when certain players "hit the wall." This age differs for the three skill positions, but it's the point when you will see performance begin to drop precipitously. Two running backs I would keep an eye on here are Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis, who turned 31 in February, and San Francisco's Garrison Hearst, who turned 32 in January.
Here are the ages I consider to be "the wall" for their positions.
Quarterback -- 33
Running back -- 31
Wide receiver -- 34
I repeat: This is not a foolproof system. Raiders receiver Jerry Rice turned 40 last October and was still a great player in 2002 -- 92 catches, 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns.
Ascending players: Not much of a formula here as these are essentially projections. As we get into the position rankings, you'll see who I think will have a breakout year. Last year, I thought Bengals receiver Chad Johnson and Saints RB Deuce McAllister would fall into this category. Based on their statistics, I'd like to think I was correct.
One RB who was once an ascending player was Priest Holmes, who quietly joined the Chiefs in 2001. Since then, he's been a fantasy gift for whoever drafts him, and he knows it! He actually acknowledged the fantasy community recently when he told reporters that they should tell all the fantasy players they'll be sorry if they don't take him No. 1. Holmes is coming off of a hip injury, but his confidence along with his potential could be too much for fantasy players to pass up come draft time.
We hope the advice given here will help you earn those weekly bragging rights you crave! Good luck, and don't forget to check out NFL Fantasy Extra to give you a decided edge over your opponents every week.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/6508807
